The world has almost avoided the worst climate scenarios, and greenhouse gas emissions may soon peak. But the dangers are still ahead. With the United States pulling out of the Paris Agreement for the second time, new temperature records and increased extreme weather, the outlook remains bleak. The international community has set a goal of keeping the global average temperature rise below 2°C, and ideally to 1.5°C. Almost a decade after the Paris Agreement, this path is still extremely challenging, but a number of efforts to switch to renewable energy sources and energy efficiency have pushed back the worst-case scenarios of climate impacts.
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How we got here
Since the beginning of the industrial era around 1850, greenhouse gases have been steadily increasing. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is the most common, but methane and nitrous oxide also play an important role. These gases trap the Sun’s heat in the atmosphere and prevent it from being fully radiated back into space. According to 2023 data, 41% of global energy CO₂ emissions came from coal combustion for electricity generation, 32% from the use of petroleum products in road transport, and another 21% from natural gas used to heat buildings and industrial processes. Rising temperatures have already led to the highest temperature level on record in 2024, when the global average temperature exceeded +1.5°C above the pre-industrial period – with the obvious consequences of deadly heat waves, devastating floods and intense typhoons.
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Where we are heading
In 2014, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) introduced four Great Scenarios, called Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which reflect possible climate development trajectories depending on human activity. Among them, only RCP 2.6 would guarantee compliance with the goals of the Paris Agreement (keeping warming well below 2 °C). Other scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0, envisage moderate measures, while the RCP 8.5 scenario involves almost no action and the highest emissions. If we compare the current reality with these projections, it turns out that the Earth is heading for a temperature rise of about 2.7°C by the end of the century – a level that scientists call an “unprecedented threat” to life on the planet. At the same time, IPCC experts developed five alternative pathways for socio-economic and political development, among which the “middle path” model was the closest to reality – uneven development, a gradual reduction in resource use intensity and stabilisation of population growth. However, the current scenarios are already outdated, so a number of researchers have proposed the One Earth Climate Model with stricter emission limits and a budget of 450 billion tonnes of CO₂ until a “zero” balance is achieved. To meet these targets, the world needs to fully switch to clean energy and stop burning fossil fuels and deforestation by 2050.
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Have we reached the peak of emissions
Despite the rapid growth of renewable energy capacity, energy storage and the availability of electric vehicles, global emissions have not yet stopped. However, tangible progress has already been made. In 2023, EU emissions decreased by 8.3% compared to the previous year. Europe’s emissions are now 37% lower than in 1990, while the region’s GDP grew by 68% over the same period, and the EU remains on track to reduce emissions by at least 55% by 2030. In Australia, emissions decreased by 0.6% last year, bringing the country’s emissions down by 28.2% from June 2005, which is its baseline under the Paris Agreement. The US emissions are also slightly below pre-pandemic levels, which are currently about 20% lower than in 2005. Loudly or quietly, the world is gradually moving towards peaking CO₂ emissions by 2025, as recommended by the latest IPCC reports. Reaching the peak this year could be a tipping point: in 2024, more than 90% of electricity generation growth came from renewables. Solar panel prices are falling rapidly, heat pumps are becoming more widespread, and electric vehicles have become economically viable – all of this gives us hope.
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What lies ahead
Is it too late to save the climate? No – current technologies that reduce or even eliminate emissions are already available at an attractive price. Even if 1.5 °C or even 2 °C proves to be unattainable, every tenth of a degree makes a difference in mitigating catastrophic consequences. Every additional hundred gigawatt hours of renewable electricity, every energy efficiency system installed, every enterprise that switches to green hydrogen or biogas – all of this pushes back the edge of catastrophic change. Everyone understands that the faster we reduce emissions, the faster we develop green technologies, the greater the chance of securing a safe climate future.
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