In November 2024, Ukrainian businesses demonstrated a weakening of business activity. According to the National Bank of Ukraine’s monthly survey, the index of business activity expectations (IBAE) fell to 47.2, down from 49.4 in October. A value below 50.0 indicates pessimistic expectations of enterprises.
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The main reasons for the decline in sentiment:
- intensification of hostilities;
- power outages due to Russian attacks on the energy system;
- inflation;
- rising energy, logistics, and labour costs;
- shortage of qualified personnel.
A total of 504 companies from various sectors took part in the survey. The worst performance was recorded in the construction industry (IBAE – 43.6), where the seasonal slowdown in construction work and the shortage of workers exacerbated negative sentiment. The index was 44.8 in services and 46.7 in industry. Trade remains the only sector with a positive outlook: The IBAE stood at 51.4, thanks to steady domestic demand and sufficient supply of goods.
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In industry and services, companies predict a decline in production and orders. In construction, in addition to these factors, purchases of raw materials are expected to decline. At the same time, trade is expected to increase its turnover and purchases, but with purchase prices rising.
The situation on the labour market remains difficult. The construction and service sectors are expected to reduce their staff, while most companies in other sectors plan to maintain their current number of employees.
Against this backdrop, the slowdown in the growth of input prices has contributed to a decline in the cost of production, although prices for services and goods continue to rise.
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