Ukraine is facing a serious demographic crisis due to a rapidly declining population. According to the Strategy for Demographic Development of Ukraine until 2040 approved by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, the country’s population has declined significantly over the past two decades. While in December 2001, Ukraine was home to 48.5 million people, as of July 2024, the population in the government-controlled areas was only 31.1 million.
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(Un)healthy lifestyle
Population decline is caused by a number of interrelated factors. One of the most important is the high mortality rate, especially among men. Employment in hazardous and dangerous conditions, high mortality due to road traffic accidents, alcohol, drug and tobacco abuse, and a lack of awareness of healthy lifestyles among the population all contribute to the shortening of life expectancy among Ukrainians. For comparison, in 2020, the average life expectancy at birth in Ukraine was 71.35 years, while in the European Union this figure reached 80.4 years.
Low birth rate
Another reason for depopulation is low fertility rates. In 2020, the total fertility rate in Ukraine was only 1.22 per woman, which is almost twice lower than the rate required to ensure simple reproduction of the population (2.2). Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine has further aggravated the situation, and the fertility rate has now fallen below 1. Security risks, uncertainty about the future, and family separation all have a negative impact on Ukrainians’ decisions to have children.
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Mass emigration
The massive forced emigration caused by the war also contributes significantly to the population decline. Millions of Ukrainians were forced to leave their homes and go abroad. The return of these people to Ukraine after the war is over remains in doubt. Experts estimate that between 1.3 and 3.3 million people may remain outside Ukraine, which represents a significant demographic loss for the country.
In addition to these factors, the demographic situation in Ukraine is also affected by such issues as insufficient access to quality healthcare, especially in rural areas, neglect of a healthy lifestyle, poor nutrition, lack of physical activity, late response to health problems, and unfavourable environmental conditions in some regions.
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Population decline
Given all these factors, the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine predicts a further decline in population. Experts estimate that by 2041, Ukraine’s population could decline to 28.9 million people, and by 2051 – to 25.2 million people. These forecasts demonstrate the severity of the demographic crisis and the need to take urgent measures to overcome it.
It is important to note that demographic problems are complex and require a systematic approach to solving them. It is necessary to develop and implement effective measures aimed at reducing mortality, increasing the birth rate and creating favourable conditions for the return of emigrants. This involves improving working conditions, increasing access to quality healthcare, promoting healthy lifestyles, supporting families with children, and creating attractive conditions for living and working in Ukraine.
Overcoming the demographic crisis is an important task for Ukraine’s sustainable development. This requires joint efforts of the state, civil society and international partners.
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