Main points:
- Analysts at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting have identified seven regions with a persistent deficit of interregional bus routes: Kyiv, Lviv, Kharkiv, Zakarpattia, Chernivtsi, Vinnytsia, and Odesa.
- The main problem in the market is not a lack of routes, but an uneven distribution of the network.
- The composition of the deficit regions has hardly changed since 2021, meaning the shortage has a structural nature.
- The war has shifted demand to the west: passenger traffic has increased in western regions and decreased in border areas.
- The reason for the disproportion is regulatory barriers, not monopolization: over 550 carriers operate in the market.
- The 2026 reform abolished the competition for opening routes, but hardly changes the control system.
One and a half months after the launch of the digital reform of interregional bus transportation, which started in July 2026, the conclusions of the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting draw attention to the findings about the persistent unevenness of the route network. The main problem in the market, according to the analysts, was not the lack of routes, but how unevenly they are distributed across the country.
Researchers analyzed 21 regions and identified seven regions with a chronic deficit, where there are few routes and high demand: Kyiv, Lviv, Kharkiv, Zakarpattia, Chernivtsi, Vinnytsia, and Odesa. Kyiv region ranked last – the fact that the region’s network is built radially to the capital, and there are few direct interregional connections from the populated areas of Kyiv region.
It is noteworthy that the composition of these regions has hardly changed since 2021. The shortage was present both before and after the start of the large-scale war. At the same time, the war has redrawn the geography: routes to Crimea and occupied Donbas have disappeared, the number of passengers has increased in western regions where people have moved, and decreased in border areas that have lost people.
The authors see the reason for the disproportion not in monopolization – the market is, on the contrary, strongly fragmented, with over 550 carriers operating – but in regulatory barriers. Under the old system, it was long and difficult to open a new route, and existing permits were automatically extended during the war, so the network “froze” in a pre-war state.
The 2026 reform removed the main obstacle: now a route can be opened with a statement without a separate competition. However, researchers warn that it hardly changes the control system. It will become clear whether the network will start serving those who lack routes only when it becomes clear whether new routes appear in the deficit regions.
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