The front line in the spring and summer of 2026 became more stable, while the scale of the needs of the civilian population remained the same. Millions of people still depend on cash payments, housing repairs, and basic services, and the funds for this assistance are running out faster than they are being replenished. International organizations are rewriting the rules: instead of supporting everyone who has suffered, resources are being directed to a narrower circle of people with the highest level of vulnerability. For some, this means preserving payments, for others – the disappearance of assistance they had grown accustomed to.
Donor Money is Decreasing
The biggest blow to the system was dealt by the reduction of American support. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, last year direct assistance from the US almost ceased after the freezing of external funding and the liquidation of the US Agency for International Development. The European Union increased military aid by about two-thirds, and financial and humanitarian aid by more than half. The total amount of support for Ukraine still turned out to be 13% lower than the average annual level of previous years.
The President and CEO of the International Rescue Committee, David Miliband, during his June visit to Ukraine, announced that the budget of his organization in the country had been halved. He described the broader picture as a “new world disorder”, in which crises are becoming more frequent, and resources for response are becoming less. According to the UN, there are about 118 million displaced people in the world, and almost 10 million of them are Ukrainians; approximately 4 million have the status of internally displaced persons.
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Selectivity Instead of Universality
Since April 2026, UN and UNICEF structures have switched to a selective approach. Cash assistance is now received by certain categories – residents of front-line territories, evacuees, people with disabilities, large families, pensioners, and those who have lost their homes due to hostilities. The amount of payments is tied to the category. Evacuees and those affected by shelling can receive 12,300 hryvnias once, those who have returned home – 10,800 hryvnias in three monthly installments, and the most vulnerable IDPs without state assistance – 2,000 hryvnias per adult and 3,000 per child or person with a disability per month.
Registration for most programs takes place in waves and is often closed within a few days. The Norwegian Refugee Council opened a window for submitting applications in mid-June for only nine days. Caritas Ukraine works in eight front-line regions through a network of local branches, and UNICEF in the summer of 2026 did not announce an open registration for new cash assistance programs. A person in need of assistance is increasingly forced to track short periods of application acceptance through the local community.
Who Falls Out of Sight
The shift to the “most vulnerable” leaves without support those who previously relied on it. Analysts at ACAPS in scenarios for 2026 predict that the deficit of assistance will be most strongly felt by front-line communities, people who have been in the status of displaced persons for a long time, elderly residents, and those who are returning to destroyed areas. The state has strengthened control in parallel with donors. Since July, the Ministry of Finance has been checking every month who among the IDPs has been abroad for more than 90 days in a row, and the Pension Fund verifies the compliance of recipients with new criteria, after which the IDP certificate can be revoked. Housing vouchers for displaced persons have been verified through state registers since August, and owners of inaccurate data receive a refusal.
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Organizations are Looking for a Way to Survive
The reduction in funding has also hit the program implementers themselves. According to a rapid study by Open Space Works Ukraine, three-quarters of Ukrainian civil society organizations after the termination of USAID assistance are actively seeking alternative sources. Some have reduced staff, some have sent employees on unpaid leave, and some teams have curtailed entire areas of work. The suddenness of this transition distinguishes it from the usual practice of donors, when funding is reduced gradually over several years and partners are warned in advance.
The replacement of American money is slow. The main instrument with predictable state funding remains the EU’s Ukraine Facility program, with which, in particular, humanitarian demining is paid for. Organizations are diversifying their income through local donors, corporate partnerships, and regular private donations by subscription, when a subscriber transfers a small amount every month to a specific area. The model of small regular contributions is attractive because it provides predictability, which large foreign grants no longer guarantee.
What Will Determine the Year
The 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan describes the situation in Ukraine as a crisis in the field of protection and estimates the number of people who plan to provide assistance first, in millions. Among the long-term consequences mentioned by both Miliband and the authors of the plan are the pressure on the mental health of adults and children, the need for stable services for those who have experienced war-related violence, and ensuring housing and employment for the most vulnerable displaced persons. The gap between these needs and available funds will determine how many people will receive support during the year.
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