The fifth year of full-scale war has changed the very nature of vulnerability in Ukraine. Economic instability has affected families who, until recently, were fully self-sufficient, but are now losing income, property, and support under their feet faster than they can recover. Ukraine remains a middle-income economy where traditional poverty indicators work poorly: they are formed by slow structural processes, while the war destroys well-being rapidly and unpredictably. In such an environment, the protection of household incomes – ensuring that families have the means to preserve their sources of income – becomes a full-fledged form of protection. The Food Security and Livelihoods Cluster (FSLC) has put this idea at the forefront of its advocacy note: when livelihoods are strengthened, income becomes protection.
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Scale of Need
According to the 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan, 2 million people in Ukraine need protection of household incomes. The priority is to cover 1.08 million, and the target for the year is approximately 140,000 people. The total funding for this area is estimated at around $48 million.
Within this figure, there are several different audiences. 24,000 people are expected to receive income support as evacuees, another 30,000 – assistance after strikes to restore productive assets, and 86,000 belong to the most vulnerable groups, for whom it is a matter of preserving at least some source of income. Behind these categories are families with different trajectories of loss and a common feature: previous self-sufficiency has been destroyed, and a new one has not yet been built.
Survey data show an increasingly wide coverage. 47% of households declare a need for livelihood support – a significant part of the population that is balancing on the edge of economic survival. Within this indicator, 39% are in severe need, 8% – in extreme need.
Evacuations that Zero Out Income in One Day
The front line is moving, and each shift generates a new wave of displacement. Since June 2025, over 160,000 people have been evacuated from front-line communities. Many of them lost their sources of income instantly – along with their homes, workplaces, and familiar social circle. There is not enough time to settle in a new place, because the next displacement can occur before the family has time to find stability.
Some people make the painful decision to stay in the high-risk zone, despite constant shelling, a moving line of contact, and destroyed infrastructure. The logic here is paradoxical to an outside observer, but understandable from the inside: livelihoods in place are already fragile, access to markets is limited, and the uncertainty of relocation is more frightening. Infrastructure factors are also added. Power outages across the country are holding back businesses that are already operating at reduced capacity, and there are fewer and fewer jobs. The growth of prices for food, utilities, and basic goods is eroding purchasing power, and even employment no longer guarantees a sufficient income.
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State Support Does Not Cover the Cost of Living
There are 4.6 million internally displaced persons in Ukraine, and about 900,000 of them receive state social assistance. The standard payment is 2,000 hryvnias per person per month, about $46.5. This support is important, but significantly lags behind the minimum consumer basket, which was estimated at 8,421 hryvnias, almost $196, as of mid-2025. The gap of more than four times between the guaranteed payment and the real cost of basic living explains why state assistance rarely takes a family out from under economic pressure.
The situation is deepened by the labor market. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, citing a study by the International Organization for Migration, the unemployment rate among IDPs reached 17% – almost twice as high as among the population that did not experience displacement. It is difficult to find a job even for those who are ready to work on any terms.
Prices are Rising, Wages are Stagnant, and There are No Savings
The purchasing power of Ukrainian families is under pressure from several sides at the same time. Since 2022, consumer goods have risen in price by 42%, and food by 49%. Incomes have hardly changed over this period, and the real value of income is decreasing month by month.
The structure of incomes demonstrates the scale of the problem. Less than 10,000 hryvnias per month, about $230, are received by 53% of employed respondents. Below the minimum wage – 8,647 hryvnias, or about $200 – 41% of people earn. Safety nets are almost non-existent in such conditions: only 27% of households have some savings that can mitigate the impact of sudden income loss.
An independent exit from the crisis runs into structural barriers. 44% of people cite a lack of jobs as the main obstacle to employment. Among those who consider starting their own business, 72% of able-bodied respondents point to the lack of start-up capital as the biggest obstacle to starting a business. The desire to work is there, but there is a lack of opportunities to convert it into income.
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No Winning Options
The gap between the availability of work, sufficient income level, and purchasing power is pushing families to make decisions in which there are no easy answers. The lack of opportunities to earn a living leaves vulnerable families with two roads. The first is secondary displacement in search of economic stability, which again breaks the newly established connections. The second is a return to abandoned homes in areas of active hostilities, where survival remains fragile, but sometimes seems more achievable than poverty in displacement.
The protracted nature of the crisis is changing the very logic of assistance. Emergency support, designed to save lives here and now, is not enough to stop the slide of families into dependence on external assistance. Without the opportunity to restore income, vulnerability becomes chronic, and livelihood protection becomes a preventive tool. It preserves the stability of the household and economic stability, preventing an irreversible collapse, after which the family is no longer able to recover without long-term external support.
What Local Programs Show
The argument in favor of income protection is based on the specific results of partnership programs. In 2025, the HELP – Hilfe zur Selbsthilfe organization supported 212 entrepreneurs with equipment, tools, and materials purchased locally from over 200 local suppliers. This scheme simultaneously strengthens the family’s income and the local market. The average useful life of the transferred assets is estimated at seven years, and the effect of the program lasts significantly longer than the period of grant support. With investments of up to 2,800 euros, 68% of entrepreneurs reported an increase in income, 52% – an increase in production volumes, 45% launched new products and services, and created additional jobs within the first three months.
A broader perspective is provided by the Ukraine Economic Resilience Program, which lasted from 2023 to 2025. According to its results, 98% of microbusiness grant recipients are no longer dependent on humanitarian aid. Household income protection demonstrates a 6.5-fold higher return on investment per person compared to humanitarian or state aid, reduces long-term dependence on constant support, reduces the risk of negative survival strategies, and protects family income more stably than short-term cash assistance.
Post-distribution monitoring data from the Joint Emergency Response in Ukraine (JERU) confirm this conclusion. Among the supported entrepreneurs, 77% were able to recover or expand, 56% reported an increase in income, and some created new jobs, including for women and internally displaced persons.
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Economy of Two Approaches
A comparison of two formats of assistance illustrates the difference in spending logic. Emergency cash assistance under the UCT-1 scheme costs approximately 49,680 hryvnias per family: a payment of 1,800 hryvnias for six months in two rounds for an average-sized household of 2.3 people. This is regular payments or several tranches that cover basic needs only for the duration of the assistance and provide vital support. The return on investment here is one to one.
Household income protection costs around 54,000 hryvnias and works differently. This is a one-time payment with a sustainable economic effect throughout the entire lifespan of the asset – on average, up to seven years. It enables the generation of income and covers the long-term needs of the family, building its self-sufficiency in meeting basic needs and improving living standards. 98% of grant recipients become independent from humanitarian aid, and the return on investment reaches one to six and a half. With almost the same initial amount, the result differs many times over.
Lack of Funding Hinders Scaling
Despite convincing results, real coverage remains negligible. In 2025, the target for income support interventions was 257,000 people, but only 10.7% were reached – about 28,000. The reason was acute underfunding after the reprioritization of the Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan in April 2025. More than 200,000 people were left without critically needed support.
In 2026, the Food Security and Livelihoods Cluster calls on partners to integrate livelihood support into emergency response programs and seeks to mobilize $48.2 million to cover 139,600 people affected by the war. The coordination of the direction is carried out jointly with the Protection Cluster. The advocacy note is dated March 2026, and it captures the moment when an effective but underfunded assistance model stands before a choice – to scale up or leave hundreds of thousands of families alone with economic pressure from the war.
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