Key points
- The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Centre has denied reports of an abnormally hot summer in Ukraine.
- The discussion refers to the ENSO phenomenon, not a weather forecast.
- ENSO is a climate pattern linked to changes in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
- The probability of El Niño is around 40%.
- El Niño is a phase of ENSO associated with warmer ocean temperatures.
- There is no direct link between ENSO and weather in Ukraine.
- Seasonal forecasts only show general trends, not exact temperature values.
The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Centre has denied information circulating on social media about an allegedly abnormally hot summer in Ukraine with temperatures reaching 35-40°C.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, this refers only to the probabilistic development of ENSO: neutral conditions currently prevail, and the chance of El Niño is around 40%.
– Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Centre.
ENSO is a natural climate phenomenon caused by changes in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and it influences weather patterns in different parts of the world. El Niño is one of the phases of ENSO, during which the ocean surface becomes warmer than usual.
The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Centre noted that this is not a weather forecast, but a general signal of climate changes on the planet.
According to meteorologists, it is still too early to draw conclusions about the summer. In addition, changes in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific do not have a direct impact on Ukraine’s weather.
Some indirect correlation may exist, but it requires further study and scientific analysis. However, such cautious wording is often turned by media into categorical statements, which is considered misleading and clickbait.
– Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Centre.
Seasonal forecasts do not provide exact temperatures or precipitation amounts. They only offer an overview of general trends and probabilities.
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