Government and scientific studies confirm that Ukraine’s climate is generally warming: summer temperatures have risen particularly sharply, whilst winter frosts have become less frequent. According to data from the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute and the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, the average summer air temperature for the period 1991–2020 rose by approximately 1.5°C compared with the 1961–1990 climate norm. Consequently, recent years have been marked by numerous temperature records and an increase in the number of hot days. In Kyiv, for example, 2023 was among the warmest on record: the annual average temperature was +10.8°C (1.8°C above the norm). Similar trends are observed across the country: the highest temperatures are traditionally recorded in the south and east of Ukraine, where there are now more days with a daily maximum air temperature above +25°C.
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The summer heatwave and record temperatures
Over the past two decades, summers in Ukraine have become significantly hotter. According to the Hydrometeorological Centre, days when the air temperature rises above +30 °C are being recorded more frequently. Currently, seasonal average monthly temperatures in June–August have risen by approximately 1–2 °C, as confirmed by long-term observations and analyses. In particular, 2023 saw the hottest summer on record in the Northern Hemisphere, and record-breaking heatwaves were also recorded in Ukraine. In Kyiv, on 29 August 2023, the daytime temperature reached +35.9 °C, matching the historical maximum for that day. Maps from the Regional Integrated Analysis Centre (REACH) show that the highest frequency of extreme heat days is concentrated in the south and east (Kherson, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions), where the strain on cooling systems is greatest. At the same time, the central regions (including Kyiv) are currently experiencing more intense heat compared to the previous period (2000–2012), which is consistent with the trend of a shift in abnormally high temperatures across the country.
Climatologists emphasise that hotter summers increase health risks in cities and drive up demand for electricity due to air conditioning. According to some estimates, the number of ‘hot’ days with air temperatures above +25°C from 2000 to 2025 across most of Ukraine has increased by 10–20% compared to the previous period, as confirmed by recalculated meteorological observations (using the ERA5 dataset). Consequently, Ukrainian cities are increasingly experiencing prolonged heatwaves, and public health and the power grid are considered to be more vulnerable.
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Winter frosts and attacks on the energy sector
In contrast to the summer heat, winters in Ukraine in recent years have generally been milder than the climatic norm. Official statistics from the Central Geophysical Observatory show that the winter of 2022–2023 ranked eighth among the warmest in Kyiv for the entire period of observation (average temperature –0.4 °C, which is 2.1 °C above the norm). The winter of 2023–2024 turned out to be even warmer: the average temperature was +0.3 °C, which is 2.8 °C above the norm, and 2023–2024 became the third warmest winter since 1881. Even the winter of 2024–2025 remained warmer: in Kyiv, the average temperature was –0.5 °C (2.0 °C above normal), and this winter ranked among the top ten warmest.
Consequently, the typical severe frost and stable snow cover typical of an average winter in central Ukraine are very rare. The lowest temperatures of the winter of 2024–2025 in the capital reached approximately –12…–15 °C (on 13 February 2025, the minimum was –12.3 °C; in January–February 2024, –15.8 °C), whereas in previous years there were only a few days of frost. This means that most regions of Ukraine now experience mild negative temperature anomalies more frequently than dramatic cold spells.
However, even such a relatively ‘mild’ winter has not been without consequences for residents. Against the backdrop of Russia’s war against Ukraine, cold spells carry double the danger. According to data from the international analytical centre ACLED, it was during the cold months of 2023–2024 that Russia intensified its attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Indeed, between September 2023 and 13 February 2024, over 735 instances of shelling and strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure were recorded – more than in any other winter of the war. This led to widespread power and heating cuts precisely during the cold spell. According to official reports from the Ministry of Health, during the period leading up to the cold spell (20 December – 18 January), over 1,100 people sought emergency medical assistance due to frostbite and the risk of hypothermia. Thus, even warmer-than-normal winters in Ukraine are still compounded by risks arising from the military situation: the cold adds further threats to homes where critical infrastructure has been damaged.
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