Nearly four years of full-scale war continue to deplete the social and economic resources of Ukrainian society. According to the IOM, as of January 2026, there were approximately 3.7 million internally displaced persons in Ukraine and around 4.4 million people who had returned to their places of permanent residence following displacement. In this context, the question of long-term solutions (i.e. a return to a stable life beyond the uncertainty of war) takes on particular relevance. A new IOM study based on General Population Surveys (GPS, Round 22) uses the Joint Analytical Framework (JAF) to comprehensively assess households’ progress in finding such solutions. Rather than focusing on legal status or assistance, the analysis classifies households into three categories based on their level of stability and (re)integration.
iom_ukr_vymiryuvannya-progresu-u-dosyagnenni-dovgostrokovyh-rishen-v-ukrayini-_lyutyj_2026Methodology
Under the JAF methodology, responses to numerous survey questions are converted into binary indicators that reflect the fulfilment of critical conditions for long-term decisions. For some criteria, a single question is sufficient; for others, a composite indicator is formed from several questions. As a result, households receive a ‘pass/fail’ rating for each criterion, which is then aggregated into one of three stability categories. This methodology allows for the comparison of families’ progress based on the actual conditions of their lives.
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Key findings
The analysis revealed that progress towards long-term solutions correlates significantly with displacement status. Internally displaced households are predominantly concentrated in the lowest, first category of stability, indicating acute problems in their access to essential goods and services. Households that have returned after displacement show intermediate indicators. Non-displaced families, by contrast, are more evenly distributed across all three categories, although a significant proportion of them have not reached the third, highest category. This means that the conditions for stabilising one’s life (for example, home ownership, sufficient income, social ties) are far from always satisfactory, even among those who have never left their place of residence.
Particular attention was paid to returnee households. It turned out that the results depend significantly on the duration of their displacement. Those who were displaced for less than three months (which accounts for over half of the returnees) show a distribution across stability categories similar to that of the non-displaced. In other words, short-term displacement does not necessarily leave lasting consequences of vulnerability. At the same time, households that were displaced for a long period are less likely to reach the top categories, indicating an accumulation of negative consequences from prolonged displacement.
Economic security is a key factor for progress across all groups. Employment among adult family members is directly linked to a higher position in the categories. Households with no working members usually fall into the first category with the most severe constraints. Low income and the need for several extreme survival strategies (such as cutting back on food or healthcare) also increase the risk of ending up in the most vulnerable category. This highlights that a household’s financial resources are a cross-cutting constraint that hampers progress across all dimensions of long-term solutions.
The timing of displacement also affects prospects for stabilisation. Recently displaced households are predominantly concentrated in the lower categories of progress, indicating the destabilising effect of recent displacement and the need for time to adapt. As the duration of displacement increases, the situation may improve, though the level of progress remains uneven. Intentions regarding future relocation also proved significant: families planning to move again tend to remain in the first category, whilst those intending to settle in their current location are more likely to fall into higher stability groups.
Conclusions and recommendations
A comprehensive analysis suggests that displacement tends to exacerbate existing structural problems rather than acting as an independent factor. Analysts note that adapting the JAF approach ‘highlights the specific and cumulative disadvantages associated with displacement’, allowing efforts to be focused on the most vulnerable groups. These findings can be used by the government and humanitarian organisations to develop targeted policies supporting long-term solutions, in particular by strengthening the economic self-reliance of displaced persons and creating conditions for stable return or integration.
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