According to the results of the latest (fifth) wave of monitoring by the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), as of the end of 2025, approximately 5.6 million Ukrainian citizens are living outside Ukraine. According to CES estimates, approximately 4 million left via the western border of the country. For comparison, UN data shows that there are approximately 5.9 million registered Ukrainian refugees worldwide (data as of early 2026). Almost 90% of them are in European countries (about 5.3 million). Among neighbouring countries, Poland has accepted the most, currently hosting about one million Ukrainian refugees. As Reuters reporters note, the Russian invasion has caused the largest wave of refugees in Europe since World War II: currently, more than 5 million Ukrainians are scattered across the continent.
Scale and dynamics of departures
The CES study provides an understanding of the scale of migration flows. From the start of the full-scale war until the end of 2025, 60.4 million people crossed the Ukrainian border to leave the country, while 56.3 million crossed it to enter. The difference between these figures (over 4 million) roughly corresponds to the number of people who left and did not return. Of this number, about 4 million Ukrainians left through Ukraine’s western borders. The report separately notes that, in addition to this group, there are almost 277,000 citizens who left for Europe in transit through the Russian Federation or Belarus; additionally, about 1.3 million Ukrainians are currently registered as refugees in Russia or Belarus (according to UN data).
Even with a slight slowdown in migration flows, the number of those who remained abroad continued to grow. Thus, compared to the end of 2024, the total number of refugees increased by approximately 400,000. This happened despite the fact that in 2025, the rate of departures from the country fell by almost a third. The dynamics reflect the initial wave of mass evacuations in 2022, followed by stable departures in subsequent years, which, however, are gradually slowing down.
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Demographic profile of refugees
According to CES experts, women and children predominate among Ukrainian refugees. Women account for approximately 40% of those who have left, and children for almost 31%. Men over the age of 18 account for only 29% of all refugees. In terms of age, two-thirds of emigrants (66%) are of working age (18–65), and young people (under 35) account for more than half of all refugees (56%). At the same time, it was noted that the proportion of older people (over 45) decreased over the year, indicating a relatively higher willingness among older Ukrainians to return home.
Families with children also make up a significant proportion of migrants. According to estimates, more than a third (37%) of refugees are complete families with children under 18. And in 2025, such complete families left even more actively than in previous years (25% of all departures compared to 17% in 2022–2024). In addition, a new trend has been observed among young men: after the easing of restrictions on departure, there was a significant increase in the outflow of young men aged 18–22. In particular, between August and November 2025, 96,000 more men in this age group left the country than returned. This means that today, one in seven young men aged 18–22 is abroad.
Countries of residence
Among European countries, Germany and Poland remain the main host countries. According to CES estimates, the largest number of Ukrainians abroad currently live in Germany (23%) and Poland (19.5%). We are talking about millions of people; in total, these two countries have accepted more than 40% of all Ukrainian refugees. Germany attracts mostly young migrants: 28% of Ukrainians under the age of 35 live there, while there are significantly fewer among the older generation (35+). Poland, on the other hand, has a noticeably different age profile: it is more popular with the middle generation, with 24% of Ukrainians aged 35–49 settling there. Other European countries (including the Czech Republic, Italy, Spain and Hungary) have taken in smaller groups of migrants.
For comparison, official UNHCR data confirms a large influx into Poland – about one million people. By the beginning of 2026, Poland had accepted approximately as many refugees from Ukraine as any other country in the world. Neighbouring Hungary and several Western European countries have also become major reception sites, but none of them come close to the scale of Germany and Poland.
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Returning home and the consequences for Ukraine
An important issue is the refugees’ own intentions regarding their return to Ukraine. According to the CES survey, only 43% of respondents said they plan to return home, while 36% have no such plans. At the same time, almost 80% of those willing to return specify that this will only happen after the war has finally ended and civil aviation has been restored. The most likely to return are the so-called “classic war refugees” – those who left directly because of active hostilities in their region. Among them, 63% definitely or probably plan to return in the near future.
The CES considers having relatives and work in Ukraine to be factors that contribute to return. For example, having a partner (husband or wife) in Ukraine doubles the chances of returning. Remote employment or study in the homeland, as well as regular money transfers to relatives, also help significantly – they maintain ties with the country and motivate people to consider returning as a real option.
Analysts warn that, in the most moderate scenario, only about 1.6 million people will return to Ukraine, and in the pessimistic scenario, even fewer (about 1.3 million). This means that in 2027, between 2.1 and 3 million Ukrainians will remain abroad. Such an “outflow” of skilled labour could be costly for the Ukrainian economy: according to CES estimates, due to unfulfilled migration expectations, the country’s GDP losses will range from 2% to 9.5% annually.
For Ukraine, this is also a problem of “brain drain.” Most of the current refugees are highly qualified specialists: 71% have higher education and, before the war, were employed in Ukraine in positions with medium or high incomes. Currently, about 1.7 million adult Ukrainians have already integrated into the labour markets of Western countries. On the one hand, this allows them to gain independence and earn money abroad, but on the other hand, there may be a shortage of skilled workers in Ukraine after the war ends.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has set a goal of returning 70% of refugees after victory, but the world media reports that their willingness to return is gradually declining. Every year, the proportion of those who consider Ukraine to be almost home is decreasing: Ukrainian communities have already formed in Polish cities, refugee children are receiving local education, and more and more people feel “native” in their new surroundings.
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