An analysis of the financial reports of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees for the last three years indicates a gradual decline in international aid. While in 2024 the total needs for responding to the emergency in Ukraine were estimated at US$993.3 million, by 2026 this figure had fallen to US$614 million for the entire situation, including support for refugees in neighbouring countries. In 2026, USD 470 million is planned to be spent directly on humanitarian programmes within Ukraine. This reduction in financial plans by almost 40% compared to two years ago reflects a change in the strategy of international institutions and adaptation to the long-term nature of the crisis.
Retrospective of financial performance and deficit level
The dynamics of actual budget funding also underwent significant transformations. During 2024, humanitarian plans were financed at 65–70% of the initial requirements. The situation became much more complicated in 2025, when the recorded level of coverage of needs fell to 51.8%. The beginning of 2026 shows a figure of 29% of needs financed as of 31 January. Although this figure seems optimistic for the first month of the year at first glance, a detailed examination of the structure of revenues indicates the significant role of indicative allocations and balances from previous periods.
The capital available at the end of January 2026, amounting to $136.8 million, includes more than $109 million in non-earmarked and soft earmarked contributions, which the organisation flexibly reallocates to priority areas. In previous years, the share of direct earmarked contributions from individual states was higher in the early stages of planning. The current situation is forcing humanitarian operators to increasingly rely on internal reserves and flexible funding instead of new large-scale earmarked programmes from donor countries.
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Transformation of the list of key partners and support formats
The composition of major donors remains relatively stable, but the volume of their participation is subject to adjustments. The European Union continues to lead in terms of direct contributions, allocating more than $16.8 million at the beginning of 2026. Germany, which was among the top three donors in 2024 and 2025, has currently provided approximately $5.8 million in soft-targeted funding. It is important to note the continued support from the Scandinavian countries, particularly Sweden, Norway and Denmark, which traditionally provide the largest amounts of non-earmarked funds. These resources are becoming critically important at a time when the total budget request for programmes within Ukraine has decreased from $550 million in 2025 to $470 million in the current period.
The shift in donor priorities is reflected in the transition from emergency assistance to programmes supporting self-sufficiency and integration of displaced persons. Statistics from previous years show that funds are increasingly being directed towards housing repairs and legal advice, while direct cash assistance to meet basic needs is being reduced. The current budget gap of $333 million, recorded at the beginning of this year, is a reminder of the need to find new sources of funding to support critical services in frontline regions.
Impact of underfunding on operational capacity
The steady decline in the level of humanitarian needs coverage poses risks to long-term recovery projects. In 2024, more than 8 million people were reached with assistance, but with funding declining in 2025, the number of service recipients began to decrease. Programmes for 2026 are designed to provide more targeted support to the most vulnerable populations, which is a direct response to limited resources. The high proportion of unallocated funds at the beginning of the year gives organisations some room for manoeuvre, but it cannot fully compensate for the lack of large new grants.
A comparative analysis confirms that the humanitarian operation in Ukraine is entering a phase of long-term support with limited resources. This requires international structures to conduct even more rigorous audits of expenditures and focus on the most critical points of access to basic services. The funding status of 29 per cent at the start of the year is an indicator of readiness to work, but it does not guarantee the implementation of all planned activities in the event of a further decline in donor activity in the coming months.
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