Meteorologists predict that the winter of 2025/2026 in Ukraine will be extremely cold and snowy. The ongoing military conflict is creating the conditions for a new “winter test.” After three consecutive winters of war, Ukraine’s energy system has shown resilience – despite regular attacks on energy facilities, partial blackout plans and emergency measures, Ukraine has avoided total blackouts thanks to generators, electricity imports from the EU and Western aid. However, the fourth heating season is marked by new risks.
Firstly, over the three years of war, a significant part of the power plants and infrastructure – from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to gas compressors – has been destroyed or put out of action. So, the system’s capacity has been significantly undermined. Secondly, Russian attacks have intensified again: in October, gas production facilities were shelled, causing “critical damage” and disrupting fuel supplies. This is happening on the eve of the new heating season, so a shortage of gas or coal could lead to forced blackouts. At the same time, Ukraine needs to accumulate energy reserves to safe levels, which is already costing billions of hryvnia.
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Energy security
The most important issue is the balance between electricity production and demand. Given the heavy shelling, the country is preparing for a possible electricity shortage. Official forecasts are currently cautiously optimistic: in spring 2025, the National Bank of Ukraine improved its deficit estimates – whereas previously a shortfall of up to 4% of demand was predicted, now around 3% is expected in 2025 and only 1% in 2026. This means that, under the baseline scenario, generation will be able to meet demand most of the time, and any power cuts will be smaller in scale and duration. This improvement has been made possible by the active restoration of energy infrastructure and the emergence of additional generation capacity. In particular, distributed generation capacity is increasing – these are small power plants located near large consumers that generate energy on site. Green sources (solar and wind power plants) are also being expanded, and electricity is being steadily imported from the European Union. Ukrainian grids are officially synchronised with European ones, allowing up to $0.5 billion worth of electricity to be imported per year, especially during peak hours.
At the same time, the defence of critical infrastructure remains key. In early October 2025, the enemy carried out one of the largest missile strikes on gas facilities, complicating fuel supplies to thermal power plants and combined heat and power plants. Experts warn that even a few hits on critical nodes — gas reservoirs or coal slag heaps, compressor stations or substations — could turn planned outages into chaotic blackouts. All this is happening against the backdrop of an abnormal cold snap: forecasters predict deep Arctic frosts and prolonged snowfalls throughout Ukraine. Therefore, weather conditions will also determine how resilient the system will be to the load test. In turn, increased reliability of power supply and speed of power grid repairs remain critical factors that can prevent large-scale disruptions.
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Social issues
The economic burden of war is growing for ordinary Ukrainians. According to data, poverty levels have risen due to the war and inflation: about a quarter of citizens surveyed were forced to economise even on food. In such conditions, rising utility costs and unstable heating are becoming acute challenges. Millions of people have lost their jobs or left the country, and those who remain often face accumulated debts for electricity and heating. A significant proportion of elderly people, veterans and low-income families need special support. The situation is further exacerbated by total mobilisation: many families have lost their breadwinners, and the demographic structure is changing due to the departure of women and children abroad. Distrust of institutions is growing – the population is critical of the work of local authorities and bureaucratic obstacles in calculating benefits. For example, only 220,000 new applications for IDP status were recorded in the summer, which is significantly less than the actual need, as people often do not trust state registers.
Internally displaced persons require special attention. As of summer 2025, there were over 4.4 million IDPs registered in Ukraine, of whom almost a million receive state social benefits. Many displaced persons live in temporary shelters, dormitories or with relatives without adequate heating and repairs. They are vulnerable to the cold: old houses in frontline communities are often damaged, and almost the entire family budget goes to food and medicine. The Ministry of Social Policy has introduced affordable housing programmes (e.g. partial reimbursement of the first loan instalment), but such initiatives are far from covering all needs.
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Humanitarian situation
Each escalation of shelling leads to new casualties among the civilian population. According to UN monitoring, intense rocket and drone strikes made themselves felt in the summer – in June, 232 civilians were killed and 1,343 wounded, the highest figure in three years of war. The new armed attacks left virtually no part of Ukraine outside the risk zone: there were casualties and injuries in at least 16 regions and in Kyiv. The first half of 2025 saw a record increase in human casualties, with 6,754 civilians affected by violence, 54% more than in the first half of 2024. Many children and families spent terrifying nights in basements and corridors, avoiding the sounds of sirens and explosions; psychologists believe that such experiences can leave long-lasting trauma.
The combination of hostilities and living difficulties has caused a humanitarian crisis. On the eve of winter, the UN and its humanitarian partners presented an Assistance Plan for October 2025–March 2026, which envisages raising $277.7 million to support approximately 1.7 million of the most vulnerable people. The priority is to provide heat and basic necessities: humanitarian organisations plan to insulate and repair damaged homes, distribute mobile heaters, fuel, warm clothing and blankets, and provide money to pay utility bills. This assistance is primarily directed at people on the front lines and in frontline communities, displaced persons, the elderly, and families with children, who are most at risk in the cold. Thus, international and government programmes are trying to compensate for the lack of heat in homes and ease the burden of rising utility bills, but the scale of the problem remains enormous.
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