The mass return of Ukrainian citizens from abroad has been postponed for at least two years. This is stated in the July Inflation Report of the National Bank of Ukraine.
According to UN estimates, as of July 1, 2025, there are about 5.6 million Ukrainians outside Ukraine. Although the pace of departure has slowed, the net outflow of population continues: in the first half of this year, it amounted to approximately 60,000 people, while in 2024 — more than 200,000.
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The NBU explains that one of the key factors delaying the return is the extension of the temporary protection regime in EU countries until March 2027. Added to this are high security risks — regular shelling and terrorist attacks by Russia, as well as the growing adaptation of Ukrainians to life abroad.
According to the updated forecast, Ukraine will lose about 200,000 people annually in 2025 and 2026. Only in 2027 is a positive balance of returns expected to begin — approximately 100,000 people, which is five times less than previously forecast.
According to the NBU, the prolonged outflow of labor will slow down economic recovery and increase inflationary pressure due to rising wages. The situation could be changed by rapid economic stabilization, large-scale investments in infrastructure reconstruction, the creation of new jobs, and targeted government programs aimed at bringing Ukrainians back.
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