More than four million Ukrainians who have been granted temporary legal protection in the European Union since the outbreak of a full-scale war may be at risk of losing this status after the ceasefire. This was reported by Euractiv, citing sources in EU institutions.
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, EU countries activated the Temporary Protection Directive (TPD), which allowed Ukrainians to legally reside, work, study and use social services. As of the end of 2024, this status covered about 4.3 million Ukrainians, mainly in Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
Although the EU extended the TPD in 2023 until March 2026, its temporary nature and the lack of a single mechanism for extending protection are a cause for concern. The European Commission is considering the possibility of transferring some refugees to national forms of residence, but the final decision depends on the position of all member states.
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The complexity of the situation is exacerbated by the fact that amid a potential ceasefire, each country may make a separate decision on the future of Ukrainians. Poland, the Czech Republic, Austria, Italy, Estonia and Latvia have already begun to develop their own long-term solutions, including the introduction of residence permits for three to five years. In the Czech Republic, Ukrainians who have a job and have been living there for more than two years will be able to obtain a special five-year residence permit. Poland is also working on a new temporary resident status.
However, some states, including the Czech Republic, have already stated that they will not introduce new temporary measures after the war ends.
At the EU level, the issue of future temporary protection will be discussed at a meeting of the Home Affairs Council in June. Representatives of the ministries of interior of a number of countries confirm that a coherent European strategy should be developed by mid-2025.
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According to the UN, as of December 2024, there were 6.8 million Ukrainians abroad, of which approximately 5.5 million were in the EU, excluding those who had moved to Russia or Belarus. Polls show that the number of those planning to return to Ukraine continues to decline. Only 65% of Ukrainians declared their intention to return home in 2024, compared to 77% a year earlier. At the same time, the number of those who do not see this as a possibility has increased.
Thus, against the backdrop of a possible de-escalation of the war, Ukrainian refugees in Europe may face a new wave of uncertainty about their future legal status.
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